Original article from Kent Live
With coronavirus cases soaring in some areas in Kent, six places in the county are unlikely to become Covid "hotspots" in the next few weeks.
An interactive map by Imperial College London experts predicts one area in Kent has a 17 per cent chance of seeing more than 500 cases per week by August 8.
The map categorises areas as "hotspots" if they have between a 75 per cent and 100 per cent chance of recording more than 50, 100, 200, 300 or 500 infections per week.
Currently, some of the areas that are not "hotspots" are Canterbury and Thanet, with Canterbury having a two per cent probability of recording more than 500 infections over seven days, while in Thanet this is seven per cent.
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The likelihood of Canterbury recording more than 500 cases by August 8 is expected to rise to 17 per cent, but this means it is very unlikely to become a "hotspot".
In Thanet, this figure is expected to shoot up to 59 per cent.
The four other areas that are expected to avoid becoming "hotspots" by August 8 are Dover, Tunbridge Wells, Folkestone and Hythe and Gravesham.
The probability of Dover documenting more than 500 cases by August 8 is 56 per cent, while in Tunbridge Wells this is 68 per cent.
Currently, Dover has a 21 per cent chance of seeing more than 500 cases per week, but in Tunbridge Wells this is higher at 49 per cent.
By August 8, the chance of Folkestone and Hythe recording more than 500 cases over seven days is 71 per cent.
At the moment, it is 75 per cent – meaning experts are predicting the area will cease to be a "hotspot".
The likelihood of Gravesham seeing more than 500 cases by August 8 is 74 per cent – meaning it is close to being classed as a "hotspot".
Currently, the area has a 66 per cent chance of seeing more than 500 cases per week.
Imperial College London says: “In the map, we show the probability of an area being a hotspot in the next one, two and three weeks.
"The projections for hotspots assume no change in interventions and human behaviour since a week before the last observed data.”
The map created by KentLive below uses Imperial College London data.
It shows the difference in infection rates, with data from today (July 21) on the left, and predictions for August 8 on the right.
The rest of Kent is predicted to be a "hotspot" by August 8, with Dartford marked as the place that could have the highest infection rate.
Scientists believe Dartford has a 99 per cent probability of seeing more than 500 cases per week.
This figure is expected to remain unchanged from today (July 21).