Original article from Kent Live
Kent has endured a very wet end to its first heatwave of the summer as storms rolled over the UK in the early hours.
After a fortnight of clear skies, sun and temperatures well above the norm for this time of the year, we've been dragged firmly back to reality by thunderstorms and plummeting temperatures.
However, the grey return to normality means looking further ahead is tempting – and the uncertainty of the long-range weather forecast might just tell us when the next burst of summer will arrive.
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And it might be as soon as early July.
These long range forecasts are admittedly speculative – and the Met Office cannot provide region-specific predictions beyond five days into the future because of this.
However, the educated guesses made by the Met Office do shed some light on what to expect from June 22, all the way up to July 15.
Temperatures are likely to recover by the end of June, with the period up to then being much of what is predicted for the next week – showers and temperatures in the low 20C region at best.
The southeast is most likely to get dry and bright conditions, though thunderstorms arriving with this are possible.
Heading into July, confidence in the reliability of the forecast is low – due to mixed early indicators for what the weather might turn out to be.
However, there is one promising prediction that "Southeastern areas may see some warm or very warm conditions at times, but these probably balanced out by cooler interludes moving in from the west."
The forecast also states that ,"south-eastern areas may see fewer spells of persistent rain," though "thunderstorms may develop during warmer periods."
None of this can be taken as gospel, or even as accurately as a regular forecast, as the Met Office admits.
"When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play – small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time.
"Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts."
That said – the crumb of hope given by having some warm weather to look forward to is something to hold on to as the grey skies hang over Kent in the next few weeks.